When will Bitcoin top this cycle? Early on in the cycle most crypto investors thought that Bitcoin will top towards the end of 2021. The reasoning was based around the Bitcoin halving.
This is because of the way it played out with the four year cycle. At the end of the cycle Bitcoin always ended up reaching it’s all time high in November or December. So there was an assumption that the same would happen this time around.
Bitcoin’s first halving happened on the 28th November 2012. Then in 2013 Bitcoin had a double top as you can see here on Bitcoincharts. It topped on the 30th November and on the 4th December. However the highest recorded price was on the 30th November which was marginally higher than the 4th of December. On the 30th it reached a high of $1170.
On the other hand in 2016 Bitcoin had its halving on the 9th July. Then in 2017 Bitcoin topped on the 17th December. It was just short of $19,800 as you can see here on Bitcoincharts.
As a result a lot of people assumed that the top will always happen at the end of the year. However there are some that are changing their tune. There are a lot of people that are saying the cycle times are lengthening.
Willy Woo for example mentioned that the Bitcoin cycle is breaking down. The structure of this cycle is completely different from other cycles. Mostly because of the amount of accumulation from investors.
The sort of accumulation that is happening at the moment is usually a sign of the start of a rally. So instead of having a strong rally at the end of 2021 the cycle is going to continue into 2022.
Here is the interview with Willy Woo explaining the rational:
Investors are throwing out rough estimates on when they think the cycle top will happen. So far there is no consensus. March has been suggested as a possibility, but at this stage things are still unclear.
However not every investor believes Bitcoin will top next year. Some are still sticking to November or December this year as a likely scenario.